Elon Musk has made a bold prediction regarding the development of superhuman artificial intelligence (AI), suggesting that it could emerge as soon as next year. This assertion represents a significant acceleration from his previous estimate of AI surpassing human intelligence by 2029. The term “superhuman” refers to AI that exceeds the cognitive abilities of any individual human in specific tasks, while “superintelligent” denotes AI surpassing the combined cognitive abilities of all humans across various tasks.
During a live-streamed interview on his social network X, Musk stated his belief that AI smarter than any individual human could be achieved by the end of the upcoming year. However, he cautioned that the progression of AI development might face limitations due to escalating power demands and shortages of the most advanced AI training chips. Musk highlighted the challenges faced in the past year, citing constraints related to obtaining Nvidia chips and, more recently, transitioning to a shortage of voltage transformer supply, with electricity supply potentially becoming the next bottleneck within the next couple of years.
Musk’s concerns about the ramifications of superintelligent AI were evident in his statements back in 2023, where he expressed a desire to halt or regulate the advancement of AI to prevent a dystopian future akin to the scenario depicted in the Terminator film franchise. Despite his reservations, Musk’s AI startup, xAI, is actively engaged in leading the development of superintelligent AI. He emphasized the importance of managing the risks associated with AI advancement while acknowledging the potential benefits it could offer.
In a recent interview with The Guardian, Musk revealed that xAI’s latest chatbot, Grok AI, is comparable in capabilities to GPT-4, the leading AI model developed by OpenAI. However, GPT-4 is over a year old, and competitors like Anthropic’s Claude 3 Opus are already surpassing its capabilities, establishing themselves as new market leaders in AI development.
Amidst his involvement in various ventures, Musk recently found himself embroiled in controversy, declaring a public dispute with a Brazilian supreme court justice. This conflict stemmed from court orders requiring Musk’s social network X to remove accounts of certain Brazilian users, prompting Musk to demand the justice’s resignation or impeachment. Furthermore, Musk faced scrutiny over his posts on the platform, acknowledging that his actions may have negatively impacted the financial standing of his company.
The article originally appeared on Times Now.